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COOK: CT Senate Race Moved to 'Toss Up'
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Connecticut Senate: A Slow, Steady Move To Toss Up
Cook Political Report Thursday, September 16, 2010
The contest between Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon has been gradually closing over the past few months, and is now in single digits, according to some polls.
A Quinnipiac University poll (September 8-12 of 875 likely voters) gave Blumenthal a six-point lead over McMahon, 51 percent to 45 percent. They were statistically tied among independents, with Blumenthal taking 47 percent to 46 percent for McMahon, and among men where McMahon had a one-point advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent. Blumenthal enjoyed a 56-percent to 41-percent lead among women voters. Blumenthal's job ratings were 70-percent approve to 26-percent disapprove. As impressive as these numbers are, his ratings in January were 84-percent approve to 11-percent disapprove. Blumenthal's favorable/unfavorable ratings were 55 percent to 39 percent while McMahon's were 45 percent to 41 percent. This poll looks a lot different than a January Quinnipiac survey that gave Blumenthal a 41-percent advantage over McMahon, 64 percent to 23 percent.
Democrats countered the release of the Quinnipiac numbers with a survey conducted by Hamilton Campaigns for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee at the same time the Quinnipiac poll was in the field (September 8-12 of 800 likely voters). This poll gave Blumenthal a 15-point lead over McMahon, 54 percent to 39 percent. Blumenthal's job ratings were 70 percent to 27 percent, and his favorable/unfavorable ratings were 61 percent to 34 percent, which were higher than President Obama's 55-percent to 43 percent ratings. McMahon had a favorable rating of 48 percent and an unfavorable rating of 46 percent. Democratic strategists further argue that they've seen no erosion in Blumenthal's job approval or favorable ratings over the course of the last few months.
We don't doubt the Hamilton Campaigns' numbers; it is a respected firm with a solid track record. At the same time, though, we are aware of Republican polling that has the race in the high single digits, though neither the McMahon campaign, nor the National Republican Senatorial Committee has released a survey. And, when all the polling taken in the race is considered, it is clear that McMahon has made slow but steady and consistent progress against Blumenthal. According to the Pollster.com trend line, McMahon now trails the Attorney General by seven points, 43 percent to 51 percent, in all general election ballots tests conducted in the race.
Democrats' main argument against McMahon centers on professional wrestling, particularly its darker side that includes substance abuse and allegations of illegal steroid use. They believe that their case is bolstered by the premature deaths of three former wrestlers in the past several weeks. Democrats hit McMahon on wrestling almost daily and the media constantly grills her on the topic. They believe that it will be McMahon's undoing at the end of the day, particularly among women voters who make up a slim majority of the electorate. According to the Quinnipiac poll, Blumenthal's 15-point lead among women tends to support their argument.
Wrestling will remain a topic for the next seven weeks and eventually either Blumenthal or a Democratic independent expenditure campaign will start airing television ads devoted to wrestling. Still, given how omnipresent wrestling has been in the race for months, we are surprised that it hasn't done more damage to McMahon. While her favorable/unfavorable ratings are certainly higher than is desirable, she continues to make progress in the race.
Much of McMahon's progress can be attributed to her constant presence on the air with television ads that have been running for months across the state, including in the expensive New York media market. Not only will she remain on the air for the next seven weeks, but the campaign's buys are likely to increase. Blumenthal has run ads intermittently, though they've been more consistent over the past couple of weeks. The ads generally focus on his accomplishments, particularly when they impact average voters, and work to portray him as a fighter for Connecticut who is not afraid to take on big business. He has yet to take on McMahon, but that will undoubtedly change soon. President Obama is headlining a fundraiser for Blumenthal in the Nutmeg State today, which may signal the start of Blumenthal's attacks on the Republican.
Democrats believe that McMahon's saturation media effort and the pile of glossy brochures that have landed in voters' mailboxes will backfire as she suffers from overexposure. They also argue that the normally staid voters of Connecticut will ultimately decide that they can't support a candidate with roots in a colorful industry like wrestling. They say that ultimately voters' concerns about McMahon's record will trump any concerns they have about President Obama's agenda. This, too, might be true to a degree. The larger point, though, is that with seven weeks left to go, McMahon has made this a race and Democrats' best efforts to stall her candidacy have not worked. This, of course, could certainly change as they start airing negative ads against her, but for now McMahon is in the hunt, handing Democrats a race in an expensive blue state that they weren't expecting.
Again, we are not dismissive of the Democratic poll that shows the race at 15 points, but the Quinnipiac poll, coupled with the Pollster.com trend line and the Republican numbers we've seen, suggest a competitive race that is now up for grabs. As such, the race moves to the Toss Up column.
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For more information, contact the Linda McMahon for Senate Press Office, 860-244-2010.
973 Farmington Avenue | West Hartford, CT 06107 | |
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