04/30/08 - One Million Reasons That Shays Is Sucking Wind

Jim Himes Is Tanned Rested And Fully Funded To Take On Tired Old Shay's And His Horribly Expensive Iraq War

Quote: "He's the only Republican representative left in all of New England," said Howard L. Reiter, head of the Political Science department at the University of Connecticut.

Headline:

Maura Keaney, Himes' campaign manager says she believes Shays is vulnerable because families are hurting economically.

Story:

Cook Report: Shays at risk
The Stamford Times, CT

U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays will be facing another difficult reelection campaign this fall, according to a Washington-based political report.

Shays, R-4, tops the list of incumbent Republican congressman most at risk to be unseated in the November elections, according to The Cook Political Report...

....The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter, based Shays' vulnerability on factors such as past election results, party registration in the district and current cash on hand totals for Shays and his challenger, Democrat Jim Himes.

Reiter agrees with the assessment that Shays could be in trouble this fall. Over the last 50 years, New England, which had a strong Republican base, has been become Democratic territory.

Reiter said that as the Republican party began to grow stronger in the south, and moved to the right on social issues, Republican appeal waned in the northeast. This shift has put moderate Republicans in bind, Reiter said....

...Reiter said the issues that are driving the upcoming election are the usual suspects: the war in Iraq, health care, education, the housing market and the economy, which he believes will be the most important issue in congressional races across the board.

Shays support for the Iraq war has cost him some support in the 4th district, Reiter said, noting that Shays had two close reelections in 2004 and 2006.

However, it is still hard to say definitively whether or not this is the year Shays is defeated.

"It's been a balancing act (for Shays) in a swing district," Reiter said. "Sooner or later, I believe a democrat is probably going to win that seat."

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