July and August are always interesting months in the Greenwich real estate market. As I look at the market today, I find myself focusing on three different components. The first component we are witnessing includes the spring sales that close in July/August. The second component includes those families that are on vacation and pulling back a little on their real estate search or sale. The last component, and possibly the most significant, that we are witnessing right now, includes the families that need to get into a new home by the start of the school year.
When looking at the first component (spring sales) I like to focus on the annualized numbers through July. I'm a big believer that in order to get a solid grasp of the spring market you really need to look at the first half of the year. The term "spring market" really refers to those buyers looking at a new year. Some might act quickly and buy in March, while others will search through spring, go into contract in June and close in August. These buyers are acting with the same intentions and time frame, though the timing of their closings are completely different. For this reason I like to take a look at the whole half (or 7/12ths) of the year.
As you can see in the chart above, we are having a great year relative to 2010. The sales prices are extremely close to 2010, though the number of houses sold is up significantly. Sometimes I will point out that a 20% bump is not that serious, though when looking at unit sales that have jumped from 293 to 351 this is a significant movement.
Now looking at just the month of July we are actually down near 20% when compared to 2010. I don't see this percentage drop as serious, mainly because we have a much smaller sample size. Last month I predicted that this number was going to be higher and was wrong. It happens. I think the reason that this July sales number is lower than 2010 is because we had a large number of spring sales close July 2010 and because we are now seeing the tailing end of the 2011 spring market. Once we get the final August numbers we will have the full picture of the 2011 spring market.
While families tend to take vacations in August (component two) and the amount of house hunters drops significantly every year (regardless of the market), we do see the final rush for those that need to be in by the school year (component three). Many of these families have been looking at houses since the beginning of the year with full intentions on buying when they found something. For one reason or another this purchase was delayed (couldn't find the right house, financing, work, etc...), but now they have a set date they need to be in by so their kids can go to school. I'm going to make the same prediction I did last month and say that the August numbers will be higher due to this final push in demand.
One factor that could easily swing my prediction off is the rental market. I have never seen this market hotter/moving faster. A well priced rental that is listed today can easily be gone by tomorrow. Some say this is due to the general issues people are having with buying. I aree, but also believe the school-year push is a large factor in demand. We'll see when the September numbers come out. I wrote two
posts on my thoughts on the rental & condo market
here and
here if you are interested.
For those of you who are interested, here are some of my other writings from this month:
Interesting SALES in Greenwich, CT
Greenwich Condo Sales
Greenwich and National Rental Market
July Real Estate Snapshot
Yun's Real Estate Outlook
Greenwich Rental Market
I hope everyone is having a great August and enjoying periods of nice weather. As usual, if you or anyone else you know want to talk in more detail (or just have listings sent to you) about Greenwich real estate I'm always excited to talk and work with new clients.
Sincerely,
Scott
Scott P. Elwell - MBA
Founder/Real Estate Agent - GreenwichCT.com
William Raveis Real Estate - Al Filippone Associates
45 Field Point Road, Greenwich, CT 06830
Mobile: 203.940.0444 : Email: scott@elwell.com
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